Investigating pathways between climate and mental health and wellbeing and development and testing of localized, impact-based early warning systems for climate vulnerable communities in East Africa

PROJECT SUMMARY Climate change (CC) is expected to exacerbate CC-related extreme weather events (EWEs) in East Africa (EA), with studies citing increased trends in temperature extremes and, to a lesser extent, changes to seasonal and annual rainfall. Acute and longer-term CC-related EWEs are expected to have a profound impact on psychological well-being and mental health, especially for women and those living in ecologically sensitive areas like floodplains and wetlands. CC has been associated with increased despair, suicidal ideation, and violence and conflict. Climate vulnerable communities are not only especially exposed to CC-related EWEs, but often face barriers to adaptation such as political and social marginalization, poverty, exclusion from formal essential services, and/or legal land tenure. Although research on mental health prevalence in climate vulnerable communities in lower-income countries (LICs) is limited, findings from recent studies indicate that depressive disorder, suicide attempts, psychosocial stress, and intimate partner violence are likely higher in some communities, like informal settlement, pastoral and small-holder farming communities, than other settings. Early warning systems (EWSs), such as hazard advisories based on localized forecasts, save lives and avoid expensive economic expenses and improve preparedness and Forecast-based Financing. The proposed study will investigate experiences of EWEs and direct and indirect associations between EWEs and mental health and violence-related outcomes using longitudinal data from 18 vulnerable communities across Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. Because there is a paucity of research focused on the effects EWEs may have on climate-vulnerable residents' mental health, well-being, and experiences of violence, and affordable interventions to prevent negative outcomes, this Research Project will also pilot a localized EWS intervention in these communities. Findings from this study could provide helpful information about important climate thresholds related to mental health and interpersonal violence in vulnerable communities, uncover key pathways between these phenomena, and test a low-cost, targeted intervention aimed at helping residents of these communities to prepare for and cope with EWEs. The Research Project will be guided by the following specific aims: Aim 1: Explore and compare prevalence and frequency of climate conditions in vulnerable communities. Aim 2: Develop localized impact-based thresholds using participants' experiences of EWEs. Aim 3: Investigate associations and potential pathways between climate conditions and mental health, well- being, and interpersonal violence in vulnerable communities. Aim 4: Explore preliminary effects of a localized EWS intervention on women's mental health, well-being, and interpersonal violence in vulnerable communities. This 27-month study integrates all aspects of the Anga Center—meaningfully engaging communities, establishing a strong administrative foundation, and building capacity for future CC and health research in EA.