Quantifying socioecological consequences of changing snow and icescapes: A data-model fusion approach

SNOW AND ICE ARE KEY FEATURES OF ARCTIC AND BOREAL REGIONS (ABRS) FOR APPROXIMATELY NINE MONTHS EACH YEAR AND THUS PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE IN GOVERNING ITS SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS IN MYRIAD WAYS. IN RECENT DECADES ABR WARMING HAS CAUSED CHANGES IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND DISTRIBUTION SEASONAL TIMING AND DURATION AND PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND PROPERTIES OF SNOW AND ICE COVERS. THESE MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CHANGES IN SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPES ARE OCCURRING CONCURRENTLY AND WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY CREATING A COMPLEX MOSAIC OF CONDITIONS OVER WHICH PEOPLE AND THE BIG GAME SPECIES AND TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS ON WHICH THEY RELY TRAVERSE. FURTHERMORE SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPE CONDITIONS HAVE A COMPLEX AND COMPREHENSIVE INFLUENCE ON BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN ABRS WITH SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR CARBON CYCLING THAT FEEDBACK AND REGULATE CLIMATE. THIS TOGETHER WITH THE FACT THAT SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPE CHARACTERISTICS SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE EASE SAFETY AND ABILITY OF PEOPLE TO MONITOR AND UTILIZE WILDLIFE RESOURCES AND TRAVEL THROUGH ABR LANDSCAPES FOR SO MUCH OF THE YEAR STRONGLY WARRANT INVESTIGATION INTO HOW CHANGING SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPE CONDITIONS ARE IMPOSING SIGNIFICANT SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES. THIS PROJECT S OVERARCHING SCIENCE GOAL IS TO: QUANTIFY THE SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGING SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPES ACROSS THE ABOVE STUDY DOMAIN. TO ACCOMPLISH THIS WE WILL FIRST QUANTIFY PAST AND PRESENT-DAY SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF SNOW AND ICE-SCAPES THROUGHOUT THE ABOVE STUDY DOMAIN VIA A DATA-MODEL FUSION APPROACH THAT COMBINES NASA AND OTHER REMOTELY SENSED DATASETS AND GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS WITH A COLLECTION OF PREVIOUSLY-DEVELOPED COLD-SEASON ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING TOOLS (OBJECTIVE 1). WE WILL ALSO USE FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS TO EVALUATE HOW THESE ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS MAY CHANGE UNDER PROJECTED ALTERATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION (OBJECTIVE 1). THIS WILL PROVIDE A SUITE OF COLD-SEASON ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES THAT WE WILL THEN MODIFY TO CREATE SOCIETALLY RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES (S-REVS; PRONOUNCED ESS-REVS ) USED TO QUANTITATIVELY EVALUATE RECENT AND PROJECTED CHANGES TO NATURAL RESOURCES AND SUBSISTENCE OPPORTUNITIES WINTER TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS AND CARBON CYCLING AS PART OF OBJECTIVES 2-4. MOOSE (ALCES ALCES) ARE A MAJOR SUBSISTENCE SPECIES IN ALASKA AND NW CANADA THUS WE WILL DEVELOP S-REVS TO QUANTIFY THE INFLUENCE OF RAPIDLY CHANGING SNOW AND ICE-SCAPE CONDITIONS ON THIS IMPORTANT NATURAL RESOURCE. THUS WE WILL QUANTIFY HOW DYNAMICS IN SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPES AFFECT: (A) THE EFFICACY OF MOOSE SURVEY METHODS; (B) MOOSE HUNT SUCCESS RATES; AND (C) MOOSE-VEHICLE COLLISIONS ON ROADWAYS (OBJECTIVE 2). GROUND TRAVEL ACROSS ABRS DURING THE WINTER AND SHOULDER SEASONS IS FREQUENTLY DEPENDENT UPON A NARROW SET OF SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPE CONDITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE BLOWING SNOW CAN LIMIT VISIBILITY AND DENSE SNOW AND/OR THICK ICE MUST BUILD UP BEFORE SNOW AND ICE ROADS CAN BE USED. SIMILARLY WINTER TRAILS USED BY LOCAL COMMUNITIES TO ACCESS SUBSISTENCE RESOURCES RELY ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE INTEGRITY OF NEARBY FROZEN RIVER NETWORKS. AS SUCH WE WILL DEVELOP SREVS THAT QUANTIFY HOW DYNAMICS IN SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPES AFFECT THE SEASONALITY DURATION AND SAFETY OF VEHICULAR TRAVEL ALONG ALL-SEASON AND WINTER (SNOW AND ICE) ROADS AND WINTER TRAILS (OBJECTIVE 3). SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY EXPLICIT SNOW AND ICE PRODUCTS THAT INCLUDE MULTIPLE SNOWPACK PROPERTIES MUST BE CONSIDERED TO UNDERSTAND DYNAMICS IN CARBON POOLS AND FLUXES YET MANY ECOSYSTEM CARBON MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY USE SUCH DATA BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT PREVIOUSLY BEEN AVAILABLE. THUS OUR PROJECT WILL FILL A MUCH-NEEDED GAP BY PRODUCING SNOW- AND ICE-SCAPE RELATED DATA DISTRIBUTIONS THAT REPRESENT KEY PIECES OF THE CARBON PUZZLE THAT MODELERS ARE WORKING TO UNRAVEL (OBJECTIVE 4).