Cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy for recurrent mismatch repair-proficient endometrial cancer after platinum-based therapy

Objective: The recent Study 309-KEYNOTE-775 showed improved survival for lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab compared to chemotherapy in patients with recurrent endometrial cancer. We created a decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab in patients with recurrent mismatch repair-proficient (pMMR) endometrial cancer who had progressed after first-line chemotherapy. Methods: A Markov model was created to simulate the clinical trajectory of 10,000 patients with recurrent pMMR endometrial cancer. The initial decision point in the model was treatment with ether lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab or chemotherapy (doxorubicin or dose-dense paclitaxel). Model probabilities, utility values and costs were derived with assumptions drawn from published literature. A cycle length of 3 months and a time horizon of 2 years was used. The effectiveness was calculated in terms of average quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), expressed in 2020 US dollars/QALYs. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Chemotherapy was the least costly strategy at $66,693 followed by lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab ($193,590). Lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab resulted in more patients being alive at 2 years (lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab: 367, chemotherapy: 109). Chemotherapy was cost-effective compared with lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab (ICER: $164,493/QALYs). Lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab became cost-effective when its cost was reduced by $1553 per month (7.8% reduction). Conclusion: For patients with recurrent pMMR endometrial cancer Lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab is associated with greater survival but is more costly than chemotherapy. The cost of lenvatinib and pembrolizumab would have to be reduced by approximately 7% to be considered cost-effective.