Collaborative Project: The Role of Counterfactual Mind-Sets in Debiasing Group Decisions with Laura J. Kray

Many consequential decisions are made by groups, from jury decisions over the guilt and innocence of defendants (Pennington & Hastie, 1992) to medical decisions made by pooling information from different expert physicians (Larson, Christensen, Franz, & Abbott; 1998). An unfortunate reality of group decision making is that collective decisions are often beset by flaws, leading innocent people to be incarcerated and those in poor health to become sicker rather than healthier. One category of factors that leads groups to make faulty decisions is the manner in which information is sought, shared, and processed in a social context (Janis, 1982). Given the magnitude of the consequences of group decisions, it is important to consider how groups can seek, share, and process information in a more systematic and less biased manner.

The purpose of the current research is to gain a better theoretical and practical understanding of the role of counterfactual thinking, or thoughts about what might have been or what almost happened, in influencing group decision making. Counterfactual mind-sets are expected to increase the propensity of groups to engage in mental simulations and consideration of alternatives. We predict that activating a counterfactual mind-set will improve the decision making accuracy of groups. The proposed program of research explores the nature, boundary conditions, and range of applications of activating a counterfactual mind-set in group decision making and problem solving contexts. The project will involve a series of controlled, experimental studies that establish the causal relationship between counterfactual mind-sets and group decision making processes and outcomes.